15 August 2011

In Which I Foray into Politics for the First Time

"Bachmann wins GOP 2012 test vote"

This is the headline of the article my local daily paper snagged from the AP yesterday, and ran on page three.

I don't know if the Substandard Exaggerator borrowed the headline, or if they came up with it themselves. Knowing their shoddy track record in headlines (and everything else), they probably did.

It was an interesting weekend in politics. Texas Governor Rick Perry announced his candidacy for President. The Iowa straw poll results came in. Pawlenty dropped out of the running.

(I am not a republican, but I was raised one. I may disagree with half the party platform, but in all likelihood I'll be backing a republican candidate in 2012. Unless the GOP candidate is Bachmann, or Palin, or Paul, or Huntsman. In that case I'll either write someone in or find myself an abandoned island somewhere and start my own country.)

It's all very fascinating.

Announcing that Michele Bachmann won a "GOP 2012 test vote" is inane and fallacious.

My father, who is an avid college football fan, and I created an easy-to-understand (hehe) explanation why.

1) It's the Republican Party of Iowa's straw poll. Not a test vote. A straw poll. Not even something like a national straw poll, but Iowa's. One state. A straw poll is nothing but a glorified survey anyway, and one state is not enough of a survey sample size.
2) ...Because it's Iowa, people. If you think that Iowa, of all places, is even vaguely representative of the demographics of the entire United States, you are sadly deluded.
3) We're fourteen and a half months out.

In football terms, this isn't even pre-season. This isn't even summer training camp. This is spring tryouts, to see  who even has a chance at making the team.

Summer training starts this winter. Pre-season doesn't begin until February at the earliest, and possibly well into spring. And the real season, the nitty, gritty, filthy, raw part of the system, where the games are real and actually mean something, doesn't start until the end of next summer. A year from now.

Bachmann winning the Iowa straw poll doesn't mean a thing, in the real world.

Love always,
Ashley

P.S. - Many thanks to my Dad, who lets me extrapolate on things he says even though I start spacing out when he goes and explains the BCS polling systems in depth. I've got the general concept now, Dad. I think. It's good enough for me. Love you!

P.P.S. - Have you seen Perry's first real campaign add? It's very good. Makes me want to do * research *.

3 comments:

Anonymous said...

I can understand Huntsman. But why the beef with Palin, Paul and Bachmann?

I think people have just taken up hating Bachmann because everyone on both sides of the isle does it. You can't possibly be unpopular and hate Bachmann...

In other news, a Russian won the Tchaikovsky, again... I think this competition is rigged. Either that or the Russians really own. All commies in the final round.

Ashley Schaffer said...

Palin: My main problem with her is the Tea Party, which she has adopted and basically become the de-facto spokesperson for (if such an non-organization can have a spokesperson). It's destroying goodwill on both sides of the fence, and makes any chance for rational diplomacy between anyone exponentially more difficult.

Paul: He's creepy. And old. But mostly creepy. And have you seen this campaign add: http://youtu.be/pChzOaIeyxY ? Disturbing on so many levels. He makes libertarians look bad, which also upsets me. Because Ron Paul in no way represents the Libertarian party platform, or the ideas it's based on. He's a radical neo-conservative out on a vendetta to... I don't even know what. But his claim of trying to uphold the spirit of the constitution is bogus.

Bachmann: The media hates her, which makes me want to like her; but I can't. I like religious people. Religion is a good thing. But when an individual's personal religion starts getting mixed up with their politics, only bad things can happen. You can't legislate morality. You SHOULDN'T try. And Bachmann drags it into everything she does. It's overkill. It offends people. It's sloppy. It's bad politics. And... basically she just kind of worries me.

In other news... Russians usually win the Tchaikovsky. It might be rigged (most piano competitions are, to a point...), but they probably have a statistical numbers advantage, besides being on their home turf and everything.

:)
/ Ashley

Anonymous said...

After last nights debate, maybe I agree with you...

On the candidates, but not the reasoning.

Later, later...

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